OK, I will admit I am a bit stumped. As I had predicted almost 3 1/2 years ago when I started evicted furniture stores, mortgage companies and realtors from retail and office, the commercial real estate market was going to take a dive. While it took a dive, it didn't dive as much as I thought because there were still plenty of mom & pops out there who still wanted to open their own retail business and plenty of foreign money. While vacancies increased, prices didn't go down as fast and as sharply as I thought, although the credit worthiness of the tenants and the landlord's due diligence became almost non-existent. Landlord's due diligence is a post for another day for me to write about.
Then it seemed that while the foreclosures increased and the prices of the retail properties came down, the money waiting in the wings came back in, proping up the market and the retail markets.
I have seen a over the last year, an increase in sales activity while the bottom dwellers get back into the market, which may also cause a further reduction in rents but I am not sure I can clearly see where the market is going.
It seems to me that, as Roger Showley of the San Diego Union Tribune, writes, the market is not only flat, but probably will remain somewhat flat for the foreseeable future, with some slight gains and dips over the next twelve months. It just seems that there is just too much uncertainty in the market for anybody to jump back into the market with ferver, including foreign investors.
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